Premier League (England) · Sun, Mar 15 · 14:00 · Crystal Palace vs Leeds United
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 52%
We make it 64% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace52%38%+13
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Leeds United27%32%−5
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 46% | +18 |
| Both teams score | 66% | 53% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 68% | +5 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 62% | −13 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 54% | +11 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Mar 12 · v AEK Larnaca (H)0-0
- Mar 5 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-1
- Mar 1 · at Manchester United (A)1-2
- Feb 26 · v Zrinjski (H)2-0
- Feb 22 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)1-0
Leeds United
DrawDrawLossLossWin
- Mar 8 · v Norwich City (H)3-0
- Mar 3 · v Sunderland (H)0-1
- Feb 28 · v Manchester City (H)0-1
- Feb 21 · at Aston Villa (A)1-1
- Feb 15 · at Birmingham City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Leeds United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-4-4 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.