Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 14 · 14:00 · Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 44%
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 43%.
11 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace44%23%+21
OursMarket
Draw28%25%+3
OursMarket
Manchester City28%52%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 48% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 77% | −21 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 75% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 31% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossLossWinWinWin
- Dec 11 · at Shelbourne (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
- Dec 3 · at Burnley (A)1-0
- Nov 30 · v Manchester United (H)1-2
- Nov 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-2
Manchester City
LossWinWinWinWin
- Dec 10 · at Real Madrid (A)2-1
- Dec 6 · v Sunderland (H)3-0
- Dec 2 · at Fulham (A)5-4
- Nov 29 · v Leeds United (H)3-2
- Nov 25 · v Bayer 04 Leverkusen (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-1-2 | 8-0-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record