Premier League (England) · Fri, Aug 28 · 19:00 · Crystal Palace vs Manchester City
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 49%
We make it 68% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 57%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace49%18%+31
OursMarket
Draw22%23%−2
OursMarket
Manchester City30%59%−29
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 57% | +10 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 56% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 41% | +29 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 82% | −31 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 77% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 24% | +39 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossDrawLossWinLoss
- Aug 22 · at Everton (A)0-2
- May 27 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- May 13 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
Manchester City
WinDrawLossLossWin
- Aug 23 · v Bournemouth (H)2-1
- Aug 16 · at Arsenal (A)0-3
- May 24 · v Aston Villa (H)1-2
- May 19 · at AFC Bournemouth (A)1-1
- May 16 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Manchester City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Manchester City form·Head-to-head record