Premier League (England) · Sun, Nov 30 · 12:00 · Crystal Palace vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 67%
We make it 52% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace67%42%+25
OursMarket
Draw21%27%−6
OursMarket
Manchester United12%31%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 54% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 69% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 58% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 73% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 57% | +27 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Nov 27 · at Strasbourg (A)1-2
- Nov 22 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)2-0
- Nov 9 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)0-0
- Nov 6 · v AZ (H)3-1
- Nov 1 · v Brentford (H)2-0
Manchester United
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- Nov 24 · v Everton (H)0-1
- Nov 8 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)2-2
- Nov 1 · at Nottingham Forest (A)2-2
- Oct 25 · v Brighton & Hove Albion (H)4-2
- Oct 19 · at Liverpool (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Manchester United form·Head-to-head record