EFL Cup (England) · Tue, Sep 8 · 18:45 · Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 44%
A 29% away win. The market says 21%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace44%56%−12
OursMarket
Draw27%24%+4
OursMarket
Middlesbrough29%21%+8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 79% | −8 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 44% | +12 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 76% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 73% | −13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
LossWinLossLossWin
- Sep 5 · at Fulham (A)3-2
- Aug 28 · v Manchester City (H)1-4
- Aug 22 · at Everton (A)0-2
- May 27 · v Rayo Vallecano (H)1-0
- May 24 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
Middlesbrough
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Sep 5 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)1-0
- Sep 2 · at Burnley (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)3-1
- Aug 25 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
- Aug 22 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-5-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.