Premier League (England) · Sun, Apr 12 · 13:00 · Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 33%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace51%33%+18
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Newcastle United24%40%−16
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 55% | 59% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 60% | +16 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 67% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 45% | +23 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- Apr 9 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Mar 19 · at AEK Larnaca (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v Leeds United (H)0-0
- Mar 12 · v AEK Larnaca (H)0-0
- Mar 5 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)3-1
Newcastle United
LossDrawWinLossLoss
- Mar 22 · v Sunderland (H)1-2
- Mar 18 · at FC Barcelona (A)2-7
- Mar 14 · at Chelsea (A)1-0
- Mar 10 · v FC Barcelona (H)1-1
- Mar 7 · v Manchester City (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record