Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United
Likeliest: Newcastle United win · 41%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 41% for the away win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace31%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Newcastle United41%40%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 62% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 59% | 60% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 46% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinDrawWinLossLoss
- Oct 18 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-5
- Oct 15 · at Olympique Lyonnais (A)2-3
- Oct 11 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
Newcastle United
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v Aston Villa (H)0-1
- Oct 12 · at Coventry City (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Hull City (H)2-1
- Sep 14 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Sep 8 · at Millwall (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Newcastle United form·Head-to-head record