Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest
Likeliest: Nottingham Forest win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace33%36%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Nottingham Forest35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 67% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 49% | 50% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Leeds United (A)0-0
- Sep 17 · v Lech Poznań (H)4-0
- Sep 12 · v Ipswich Town (H)2-3
- Sep 8 · v Middlesbrough (H)3-0
- Sep 5 · at Fulham (A)3-2
Nottingham Forest
LossDrawDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · v Coventry City (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Aston Villa (A)2-1
- Sep 5 · v Tottenham Hotspur (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Liverpool (A)2-2
- Aug 25 · v Leeds United (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Nottingham Forest form·Head-to-head record