Europa Conference League (Europe) · Wed, May 27 · 19:00 · Crystal Palace vs Rayo Vallecano
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace44%49%−5
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Rayo Vallecano27%23%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 45% | +2 |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 77% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 51% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 68% | −6 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 24 · v Arsenal (H)1-2
- May 17 · at Brentford (A)2-2
- May 13 · at Manchester City (A)0-3
- May 10 · v Everton (H)2-2
- May 7 · v Shakhtar Donetsk (H)2-1
Rayo Vallecano
WinDrawDrawWinWin
- May 23 · at Deportivo Alavés (A)2-1
- May 17 · v Villarreal (H)2-0
- May 14 · at Valencia (A)1-1
- May 11 · v Girona (H)1-1
- May 7 · at Strasbourg (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Rayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.