Premier League (England) · Sun, Dec 28 · 16:30 · Crystal Palace vs Tottenham Hotspur
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 43%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace51%43%+8
OursMarket
Draw25%28%−4
OursMarket
Tottenham Hotspur25%29%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 71% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 57% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 72% | +4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 60% | +8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 20 · at Leeds United (A)1-4
- Dec 18 · v KuPS (H)2-2
- Dec 14 · v Manchester City (H)0-3
- Dec 11 · at Shelbourne (A)3-0
- Dec 7 · at Fulham (A)2-1
Tottenham Hotspur
DrawWinWinLossLoss
- Dec 20 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Dec 14 · at Nottingham Forest (A)0-3
- Dec 9 · v Slavia Praha (H)3-0
- Dec 6 · v Brentford (H)2-0
- Dec 2 · at Newcastle United (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | Tottenham Hotspur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-4-3 | 2-4-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·Tottenham Hotspur form·Head-to-head record