Premier League (England) · Mon, Apr 20 · 19:00 · Crystal Palace vs West Ham United
Likeliest: Crystal Palace win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 38%.
20 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Crystal Palace58%38%+20
OursMarket
Draw23%29%−6
OursMarket
West Ham United19%33%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 56% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 67% | +14 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 62% | −20 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 54% | +22 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Crystal Palace
DrawWinWinWinLoss
- Apr 16 · at Fiorentina (A)1-2
- Apr 12 · v Newcastle United (H)2-1
- Apr 9 · v Fiorentina (H)3-0
- Mar 19 · at AEK Larnaca (A)2-1
- Mar 15 · v Leeds United (H)0-0
West Ham United
WinDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 10 · v Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)4-0
- Apr 5 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Mar 22 · at Aston Villa (A)0-2
- Mar 14 · v Manchester City (H)1-1
- Mar 4 · at Fulham (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Crystal Palace | West Ham United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.
Crystal Palace form·West Ham United form·Head-to-head record