First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Sep 12 · 18:15 · CSKA Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali
Likeliest: CSKA Sofia win · 54%
A tight one: we make it 54% for the home win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CSKA Sofia54%54%0
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+1
OursMarket
Arda Kardzhali17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 47% | 46% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 46% | 46% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 75% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CSKA Sofia
WinLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 5 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Cherno More Varna (H)3-1
- Aug 27 · v OFI Crete (H)0-2
- Aug 20 · at OFI Crete (A)0-3
- Aug 16 · v Botev Vratsa (H)5-0
Arda Kardzhali
WinWinWinWinLoss
- Sep 4 · v Botev Plovdiv (H)2-3
- Aug 31 · v Botev Vratsa (H)2-0
- Aug 24 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-0
- Aug 17 · v Lokomotiv Sofia (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at FK Dunav Ruse (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | CSKA Sofia | Arda Kardzhali |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.