Europa Conference League (Europe) · Thu, Oct 15 · 16:45 · CSKA Sofia vs AS Monaco
Likeliest: AS Monaco win · 68%
Likely score: 1–2
A 68% away win. The market says 63%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CSKA Sofia12%16%−4
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
AS Monaco68%63%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 32% | 37% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 88% | 84% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 15% | 20% | −5 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CSKA Sofia
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 11 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)4-1
- Sep 5 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
AS Monaco
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 10 · v Toulouse (H)2-2
- Sep 18 · v RC Lens (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · at RC Strasbourg (A)1-1
- Sep 4 · at PSG (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Olympique de Marseille (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | CSKA Sofia | AS Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 6-2-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 63% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.