First League (Bulgaria) · Sat, Oct 24 · 15:00 · CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
Likeliest: CSKA Sofia win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
CSKA Sofia38%40%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Ludogorets31%31%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 48% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
CSKA Sofia
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 15 · v AS Monaco (H)1-2
- Oct 11 · at FC CSKA 1948 Sofia (A)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Lokomotiv Plovdiv (A)1-1
- Sep 16 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-0
- Sep 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)4-1
Ludogorets
DrawDrawWinWinWin
- Oct 12 · v Arda Kardzhali (H)5-0
- Sep 14 · v FK Septemvri Sofia (H)2-1
- Sep 6 · at Lokomotiv Sofia (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · at FK Spartak Varna (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Slavia Sofia (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | CSKA Sofia | Ludogorets |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-3-0 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.