Primera A (Colombia) · Tue, Oct 20 · 23:30 · Cúcuta Deportivo vs Atlético Nacional
Likeliest: Atlético Nacional win · 62%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the away win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cúcuta Deportivo14%18%−5
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Atlético Nacional62%58%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 82% | +5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 18% | 24% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cúcuta Deportivo
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)1-0
- Oct 4 · v Deportivo Pereira (H)4-0
- Sep 26 · v Llaneros FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-3
- Sep 14 · v Millonarios (H)1-2
Atlético Nacional
LossDrawWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Boyacá Chicó FC (A)4-1
- Oct 8 · v Deportes Tolima (H)0-0
- Oct 1 · v Junior Barranquilla (H)3-1
- Sep 25 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at Llaneros FC (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cúcuta Deportivo | Atlético Nacional |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 7-2-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-1 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.