Primera A (Colombia) · Sun, Oct 4 · 21:05 · Cúcuta Deportivo vs Deportivo Pereira
Likeliest: Cúcuta Deportivo win · 57%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 57% for the home win. The market says 57%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cúcuta Deportivo57%57%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Deportivo Pereira17%18%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 77% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cúcuta Deportivo
LossDrawLossLossWin
- Sep 26 · v Llaneros FC (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Cali (A)0-3
- Sep 14 · v Millonarios (H)1-2
- Sep 5 · v Deportivo Pasto (H)2-2
- Sep 1 · at Deportes Tolima (A)1-2
Deportivo Pereira
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 29 · v Independiente Santa Fe (H)1-2
- Sep 26 · v Internacional de Bogotá (H)0-0
- Sep 18 · at Rionegro Águilas Doradas (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v Atlético Bucaramanga (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · v Millonarios (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cúcuta Deportivo | Deportivo Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-1 | 1-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.