Serie B (Brazil) · Tue, Sep 8 · 23:30 · Cuiabá vs Athletic Club
Likeliest: Cuiabá win · 50%
We make it 52% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 36%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cuiabá50%52%−2
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Athletic Club23%19%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 36% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 81% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cuiabá
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 4 · at Criciúma (A)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Botafogo-SP (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Goiás (H)1-1
- Aug 19 · v Operário-PR (H)1-0
- Aug 15 · at Ceará (A)3-1
Athletic Club
LossLossWinWinWin
- Sep 5 · v Atletico Madrid (H)3-0
- Sep 4 · v Vila Nova FC (H)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Celta Vigo (A)2-0
- Aug 28 · at Náutico (A)1-2
- Aug 27 · at Barcelona (A)0-2
| Last 10 games | Cuiabá | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.