Serie B (Brazil) · Sun, Oct 11 · 21:30 · Cuiabá vs Avaí
Likeliest: Cuiabá win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 49% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cuiabá51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Avaí19%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 42% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 81% | 80% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cuiabá
DrawWinLossWinDraw
- Oct 7 · at Vila Nova FC (A)0-0
- Oct 3 · v Ponte Preta (H)2-0
- Sep 27 · at CRB (A)0-3
- Sep 22 · v Náutico (H)3-0
- Sep 13 · at Novorizontino (A)1-1
Avaí
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 7 · v Londrina (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · v Ceará (H)0-1
- Sep 27 · at Criciúma (A)0-3
- Sep 20 · at Goiás (A)1-2
- Sep 15 · v Vila Nova FC (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cuiabá | Avaí |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.