CONCACAF Nations League · Thu, Oct 1 · 22:00 · Curaçao vs Trinidad and Tobago
Likeliest: Curaçao win · 51%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Curaçao51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Trinidad and Tobago22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 3.0 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Curaçao
LossDrawLossWinWin
- Sep 28 · v Nicaragua (H)6-1
- Sep 25 · at Costa Rica (A)4-3
- Jun 25 · v Côte d'Ivoire (H)0-2
- Jun 21 · at Ecuador (A)0-0
- Jun 14 · at Germany (A)1-7
Trinidad and Tobago
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 28 · v Dominican Republic (H)1-2
- Sep 25 · at Haiti (A)2-3
- Jun 9 · at Russia (A)0-3
- May 31 · at Korea Republic (A)0-5
- May 31 · at South Korea (A)0-5
| Last 10 games | Curaçao | Trinidad and Tobago |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-1-3 | 0-1-9 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 17% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.