Liga 1 (Peru) · Sun, Oct 11 · 23:30 · Cusco FC vs Alianza Lima
Likeliest: Cusco FC win · 39%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cusco FC39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Alianza Lima30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cusco FC
LossWinWinLossWin
- Sep 19 · at FC Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Melgar (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v CD Moquegua (H)2-0
- Aug 31 · at Cienciano (A)2-1
- Aug 23 · at Deportivo Garcilaso (A)1-4
Alianza Lima
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Sep 19 · v Asociación Deportiva Tarma (H)2-0
- Sep 13 · v Universitario (H)1-2
- Sep 6 · at ADC Juan Pablo II (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Deportivo Garcilaso (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Melgar (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Cusco FC | Alianza Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-0-4 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-3 | 1-7-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.