Liga 1 (Peru) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:15 · Cusco FC vs Club Sporting Cristal
Likeliest: Cusco FC win · 40%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Cusco FC40%41%−1
OursMarket
Draw28%27%+1
OursMarket
Club Sporting Cristal32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 55% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 56% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Cusco FC
WinLossWinLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at Sport Huancayo (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v Alianza Lima (H)1-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Cajamarca (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Melgar (H)0-1
- Sep 5 · v CD Moquegua (H)2-0
Club Sporting Cristal
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 18 · v Comerciantes Unidos (H)4-2
- Oct 11 · at Universidad Técnica de Cajamarca (A)1-0
- Sep 19 · v Club Atlético Grau (H)3-1
- Sep 13 · at CD Moquegua (A)2-1
- Sep 6 · v Los Chankas CYC (H)5-0
| Last 10 games | Cusco FC | Club Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-0-5 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-1-4 | 2-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.