Niké Liga (Slovakia) · Sat, Oct 24 · 17:00 · DAC 1904 vs MFK Ružomberok
Likeliest: DAC 1904 win · 74%
Likely score: 2–1
A 74% home win. The market says 69%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
DAC 190474%69%+4
OursMarket
Draw15%17%−2
OursMarket
MFK Ružomberok11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 68% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 26% | 31% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 85% | 83% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 87% | 84% | +3 |
| Expected goals | 2.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
DAC 1904
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 18 · at MŠK Žilina (A)3-2
- Oct 10 · at MFK Zemplín Michalovce (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v FC Spartak Trnava (H)2-2
- Sep 15 · at TJ Družstevník Veľké Ludince (A)2-3
- Sep 12 · at AS Trenčín (A)4-1
MFK Ružomberok
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 17 · at KFC Komárno (A)1-0
- Oct 14 · at Spartak Myjava (A)3-0
- Oct 11 · v MŠK Žilina (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at FC Košice (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v MFK Zemplín Michalovce (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | DAC 1904 | MFK Ružomberok |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 3.3 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 2-0-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.