K League 2 (South Korea) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Daegu FC vs Cheongju FC
Likeliest: Daegu FC win · 61%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
7 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Daegu FC61%59%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Cheongju FC17%19%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 54% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 83% | 81% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 39% | 41% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Daegu FC
DrawWinDrawWinLoss
- Sep 19 · at Seoul E-Land FC (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · v Yongin City FC (H)3-1
- Sep 4 · at Paju Citizen FC (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Busan I Park (H)1-1
Cheongju FC
LossLossWinWinWin
- Oct 9 · v Seongnam FC (H)3-1
- Sep 20 · at Ansan Greeners FC (A)3-2
- Sep 12 · at Chungnam Asan FC (A)1-0
- Sep 4 · v Seoul E-Land FC (H)0-2
- Aug 29 · at Hwaseong FC (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Daegu FC | Cheongju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-1 | 3-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.