K League 1 (South Korea) · Sun, Oct 18 · 05:00 · Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gwangju FC
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 68%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Daejeon Hana Citizen64%68%−4
OursMarket
Draw21%19%+2
OursMarket
Gwangju FC15%13%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 62% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 87% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 32% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 84% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 2.5 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Daejeon Hana Citizen
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 13 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-1
- Oct 9 · v Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (H)2-1
- Sep 20 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-2
Gwangju FC
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 11 · v Ulsan HD (H)0-0
- Sep 20 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)2-2
- Sep 13 · v FC Anyang (H)1-1
- Sep 9 · v Jeju SK (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Gimcheon Sangmu FC (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 0-6-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-0 | 0-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.