K League 1 (South Korea) · Fri, Oct 9 · 05:00 · Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Daejeon Hana Citizen39%42%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+2
OursMarket
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors32%31%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 53% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 69% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 58% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 57% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WinWinDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · at Incheon United (A)1-1
- Sep 15 · v Kyoto Sanga FC (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v FC Anyang (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)5-0
Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors
WinDrawLossWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v Gwangju FC (H)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Seoul (H)1-2
- Sep 9 · at Gangwon FC (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-0 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.