AFC Champions League Elite (Asia) · Tue, Sep 15 · 10:00 · Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Kyoto Sanga FC
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 49%
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Daejeon Hana Citizen49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw27%27%0
OursMarket
Kyoto Sanga FC25%25%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 73% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 2.3 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Sep 12 · v Pohang Steelers (H)2-2
- Sep 9 · v FC Anyang (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Jeju SK (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Ulsan HD (H)2-1
Kyoto Sanga FC
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v Kashiwa Reysol (H)2-3
- Sep 6 · at FC Tokyo (A)0-2
- Sep 2 · at Yokohama F. Marinos (A)1-1
- Aug 29 · v Avispa Fukuoka (H)2-1
- Aug 22 · v Mito Hollyhock (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Kyoto Sanga FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-0 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.