K League 1 (South Korea) · Sat, Sep 12 · 10:00 · Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Pohang Steelers
Likeliest: Daejeon Hana Citizen win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 51%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Daejeon Hana Citizen51%51%0
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Pohang Steelers22%23%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 47% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 77% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 49% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Daejeon Hana Citizen
WinWinLossWinWin
- Sep 9 · v FC Anyang (H)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)5-0
- Aug 30 · at Jeju SK (A)1-3
- Aug 26 · v Ulsan HD (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · v Gangwon FC (H)3-0
Pohang Steelers
LossWinDrawLossDraw
- Sep 9 · v Gimcheon Sangmu FC (H)0-0
- Sep 5 · at Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors (A)0-2
- Aug 30 · at Gangwon FC (A)0-0
- Aug 25 · at Jeju SK (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Bucheon FC 1995 (A)0-3
| Last 10 games | Daejeon Hana Citizen | Pohang Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.