Super League (China) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Dalian Yingbo FC vs Shenzhen Peng City
Likeliest: Dalian Yingbo FC win · 56%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 56% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Dalian Yingbo FC56%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
Shenzhen Peng City20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Dalian Yingbo FC
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 11 · at Qingdao West Coast (A)4-0
- Sep 5 · v Qingdao Hainiu (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · v Beijing Guoan (H)1-1
- Aug 23 · at Chongqing Tonglianglong FC (A)1-0
- Aug 19 · at Shanghai Port (A)1-1
Shenzhen Peng City
WinDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v Henan FC Jiuzu Dukang (H)2-2
- Sep 5 · at Shandong Taishan (A)1-1
- Aug 28 · v Shanghai Port (H)0-1
- Aug 22 · v Zhejiang (H)1-1
- Aug 15 · at Liaoning Tieren FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Dalian Yingbo FC | Shenzhen Peng City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.