Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 18 · 18:00 · Danubio vs Central Español
Likeliest: Danubio win · 47%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 47% for the home win. The market says 47%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Danubio47%47%−1
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Central Español23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 66% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 53% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Danubio
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 9 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Cerro Largo (H)2-1
- Sep 27 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)1-1
Central Español
DrawLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 11 · v Nacional (H)0-1
- Oct 3 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-3
- Sep 27 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-2
- Sep 21 · v Montevideo City Torque (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Cerro Largo (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Danubio | Central Español |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-5-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.