Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sun, Oct 4 · 13:00 · Danubio vs Cerro Largo
Likeliest: Danubio win · 45%
We make it 51% for both teams to score. The market says 45%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Danubio45%47%−2
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+3
OursMarket
Cerro Largo23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 45% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 53% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 66% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Danubio
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 27 · at Defensor Sporting (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Peñarol (H)0-4
- Aug 29 · at Progreso (A)0-1
Cerro Largo
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 26 · v Nacional (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Deportivo Maldonado (A)0-2
- Sep 12 · v Central Español (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · at Montevideo City Torque (A)1-2
- Aug 30 · v Liverpool UY (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Danubio | Cerro Largo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 0-5-5 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-5-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.