2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Oct 10 · 11:00 · Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus
Likeliest: Darmstadt 98 win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 44%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Darmstadt 9843%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Energie Cottbus32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 70% | 69% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Darmstadt 98
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 18 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-3
- Aug 30 · v Hannover 96 (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at FC Carl Zeiss Jena (A)2-1
Energie Cottbus
LossLossDrawWinDraw
- Sep 20 · v FC St. Pauli (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Karlsruher SC (A)3-0
- Sep 5 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)4-4
- Aug 29 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)3-4
- Aug 22 · v FC Augsburg (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | Darmstadt 98 | Energie Cottbus |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 67% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 56% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.