2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:30 · Darmstadt 98 vs FC St. Pauli
Likeliest: FC St. Pauli win · 45%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the away win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Darmstadt 9830%33%−3
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
FC St. Pauli45%43%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 65% | 64% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 67% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Darmstadt 98
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 18 · at Karlsruher SC (A)0-4
- Oct 10 · v Energie Cottbus (H)3-1
- Sep 18 · at VfL Wolfsburg (A)1-5
- Sep 11 · v Arminia Bielefeld (H)2-1
- Sep 5 · at 1. FC Kaiserslautern (A)0-3
FC St. Pauli
DrawWinDrawWinDraw
- Oct 17 · at Hannover 96 (A)1-1
- Oct 11 · v Karlsruher SC (H)2-0
- Sep 20 · at Energie Cottbus (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v VfL Wolfsburg (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at Arminia Bielefeld (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Darmstadt 98 | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 2-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 33% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 22% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 0-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.