2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, Aug 8 · 11:00 · Darmstadt 98 vs Holstein Kiel
Likeliest: Darmstadt 98 win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 44%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Darmstadt 9848%44%+4
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Holstein Kiel27%30%−4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 60% | −4 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 63% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 70% | +4 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 59% | +5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Darmstadt 98
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- May 17 · v Paderborn (H)0-2
- May 10 · at Preußen Münster (A)1-1
- May 3 · at Karlsruher SC (A)1-2
- Apr 25 · v Elversberg (H)3-3
- Apr 19 · at SpVgg Greuther Fürth (A)2-3
Holstein Kiel
WinWinWinLossLoss
- May 17 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Magdeburg (H)1-3
- May 2 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
- Apr 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
| Last 10 games | Darmstadt 98 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 3-3-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.