Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Mar 22 · 11:15 · De Graafschap vs ADO Den Haag
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 41%
A 41% home win. The market says 33%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
De Graafschap41%33%+8
OursMarket
Draw24%24%−1
OursMarket
ADO Den Haag35%42%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 63% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 58% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 67% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 44% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
De Graafschap
WinWinDrawLossWin
- Mar 14 · v FC Dordrecht (H)2-1
- Mar 8 · v Vitesse (H)1-4
- Feb 27 · at MVV Maastricht (A)3-3
- Feb 20 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
- Feb 13 · at Jong PSV (A)2-1
ADO Den Haag
WinWinLossWinWin
- Mar 17 · v Jong FC Utrecht (H)1-0
- Mar 13 · at FC Emmen (A)1-0
- Mar 7 · at Almere City (A)0-1
- Feb 27 · v VVV-Venlo (H)1-0
- Feb 24 · at Willem II (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | De Graafschap | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-3-3 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 70% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-1-3 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.