Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sat, Aug 29 · 14:30 · De Graafschap vs Almere City FC
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 42%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
De Graafschap51%42%+9
OursMarket
Draw24%23%+1
OursMarket
Almere City FC25%35%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 71% | −8 |
| Double chance 1X | 75% | 65% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 58% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 67% | 54% | +13 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
De Graafschap
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Aug 23 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-2
- Aug 17 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)2-5
- Aug 9 · at Helmond Sport (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at FC Emmen (A)0-1
- Apr 17 · v SC Cambuur (H)3-1
Almere City FC
WinLossDrawWinWin
- Aug 21 · at Vitesse (A)3-0
- Aug 14 · v Jong PSV Eindhoven (H)3-1
- Aug 8 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 24 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-3
- Apr 17 · v FC Dordrecht (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | De Graafschap | Almere City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.