Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:45 · De Graafschap vs NAC Breda
Likeliest: NAC Breda win · 52%
A tight one: we make it 52% for the away win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
De Graafschap25%28%−3
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
NAC Breda52%50%+3
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 48% | 50% | −3 |
| Double chance X2 | 75% | 72% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 36% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
De Graafschap
LossLossLossLossWin
- Sep 11 · at FC Emmen (A)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-5
- Aug 29 · v Almere City FC (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · at VVV-Venlo (A)1-2
- Aug 17 · v Jong AZ Alkmaar (H)2-5
NAC Breda
LossWinDrawLossLoss
- Sep 11 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-3
- Sep 4 · at RKC Waalwijk (A)2-4
- Aug 28 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)2-2
- Aug 22 · v Jong Ajax (H)3-2
- Aug 14 · v VVV-Venlo (H)0-2
| Last 10 games | De Graafschap | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-2-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.3 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.