Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Oct 23 · 18:00 · De Graafschap vs RKC Waalwijk
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
De Graafschap38%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw24%23%0
OursMarket
RKC Waalwijk38%37%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 67% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 66% | 69% | −3 |
| Double chance 1X | 62% | 63% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 50% | 52% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
De Graafschap
LossWinDrawWinLoss
- Oct 19 · at Jong Ajax (A)1-2
- Oct 9 · v Jong FC Utrecht Youth (H)2-1
- Oct 3 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v FC Den Bosch (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v NAC Breda (H)1-2
RKC Waalwijk
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Volendam (H)1-1
- Oct 9 · at Heracles Almelo (A)0-3
- Oct 3 · v FC Emmen (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Roda JC Kerkrade (A)0-2
- Sep 18 · v MVV Maastricht (H)6-1
| Last 10 games | De Graafschap | RKC Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-1-6 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 90% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-0-5 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.