Eerste Divisie (Netherlands) · Fri, Apr 17 · 18:00 · De Graafschap vs SC Cambuur
Likeliest: De Graafschap win · 44%
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
De Graafschap44%41%+3
OursMarket
Draw23%25%−2
OursMarket
SC Cambuur33%35%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% | 67% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 69% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 59% | −3 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 75% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 54% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
De Graafschap
LossWinDrawWinDraw
- Apr 11 · at VVV-Venlo (A)3-3
- Apr 6 · v Jong AZ (H)5-0
- Apr 3 · at FC Eindhoven (A)2-2
- Mar 28 · at Willem II (A)2-0
- Mar 22 · v ADO Den Haag (H)1-2
SC Cambuur
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Apr 10 · at FC Den Bosch (A)1-1
- Apr 6 · v FC Dordrecht (H)1-1
- Apr 3 · at VVV-Venlo (A)0-3
- Mar 24 · at FC Emmen (A)4-2
- Mar 20 · v Jong AZ (H)3-4
| Last 10 games | De Graafschap | SC Cambuur |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-1-4 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.