NB I (Hungary) · Sat, Sep 19 · 17:30 · Debreceni VSC vs Vasas
Likeliest: Debreceni VSC win · 38%
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Debreceni VSC38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
Vasas35%35%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 85% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Debreceni VSC
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Gödöllői SK (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Paksi FC (A)4-2
- Aug 28 · v MTK Budapest (H)2-2
- Aug 23 · at Kisvárda FC (A)0-0
- Aug 16 · v ETO FC Győr (H)1-1
Vasas
WinLossLossWinWin
- Sep 12 · at Tfse Tent Budapest (A)3-1
- Sep 4 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)3-2
- Aug 29 · at Újpest (A)1-3
- Aug 22 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)0-1
- Aug 14 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Debreceni VSC | Vasas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 75% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 25% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.