NB I (Hungary) · Sun, Oct 18 · 13:30 · Debreceni VSC vs Zalaegerszegi TE
Likeliest: Debreceni VSC win · 46%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 67% for both teams to score. The market says 61%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Debreceni VSC46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Zalaegerszegi TE29%29%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 59% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.9 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Debreceni VSC
DrawWinWinLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Ferencváros TC (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Vasas (H)2-4
- Sep 12 · at Gödöllői SK (A)3-2
- Sep 5 · at Paksi FC (A)4-2
- Aug 28 · v MTK Budapest (H)2-2
Zalaegerszegi TE
LossWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · v Nyiregyháza Spartacus (H)5-1
- Sep 20 · at Újpest (A)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Dunaharaszti MTK (A)5-1
- Sep 6 · v Puskás Akadémia (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at Budapest Honvéd FC (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Debreceni VSC | Zalaegerszegi TE |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-0-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 1-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.