Campeonato de Reserva de Primera División (Argentina) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:00 · Defensa y Justicia Reserve vs Atletico Rafaela Reserve
Likeliest: Defensa y Justicia Reserve win · 58%
Likely score: 1–0
We make it 54% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 48%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Defensa y Justicia Reserve58%56%+1
OursMarket
Draw24%24%0
OursMarket
Atletico Rafaela Reserve18%20%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 82% | 80% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 44% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Defensa y Justicia Reserve
LossWinLossDrawWin
- Oct 14 · at Platense Reserve (A)1-0
- Oct 6 · v Quilmes Reserve (H)1-1
- Sep 29 · at Estudiantes de La Plata Reserve (A)0-2
- Sep 23 · v Tigre Reserve (H)2-1
- Sep 15 · v Central Cordoba Reserve (H)2-3
Atletico Rafaela Reserve
DrawLossWinLossDraw
- Oct 13 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Reserve (H)1-1
- Oct 6 · at Huracán Reserve (A)0-1
- Sep 29 · v Ferro Carril Oeste Reserve (H)3-2
- Sep 23 · at Sarmiento Reserve (A)1-3
- Sep 17 · at Boca Juniors Reserve (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Defensa y Justicia Reserve | Atletico Rafaela Reserve |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-1 | 0-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.