Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Fri, Oct 16 · 22:00 · Defensa y Justicia vs Instituto De Córdoba
Likeliest: Instituto De Córdoba win · 36%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 36% for the away win. The market says 36%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Defensa y Justicia29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+3
OursMarket
Instituto De Córdoba36%36%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 48% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 64% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 45% | 47% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Defensa y Justicia
LossWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)2-0
- Oct 3 · v San Lorenzo (H)3-0
- Sep 18 · at Central Córdoba (A)2-2
- Sep 11 · v Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza (H)2-0
- Sep 6 · at Lanús (A)0-1
Instituto De Córdoba
LossWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 9 · v Boca Juniors (H)2-2
- Oct 2 · at CA Independiente (A)4-1
- Sep 20 · v Talleres (H)3-1
- Sep 15 · v Estudiantes de Río Cuarto (H)2-1
- Sep 8 · at Club Atlético Unión de Santa Fe (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Defensa y Justicia | Instituto De Córdoba |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-2-2 | 6-3-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 5-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.