Primera Division (Uruguay) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Defensor Sporting vs Cerro
Likeliest: Defensor Sporting win · 49%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 49% for the home win. The market says 49%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Defensor Sporting49%49%0
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Cerro21%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 39% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 42% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Defensor Sporting
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Albion FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nacional (A)2-3
- Sep 13 · v Deportivo Maldonado (H)1-0
- Sep 6 · at Central Español (A)1-1
Cerro
WinWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)0-2
- Sep 27 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-0
- Sep 19 · v Peñarol (H)1-2
- Sep 13 · at Progreso (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v Racing de Montevideo (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Defensor Sporting | Cerro |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-1-6 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.