Primera Division (Uruguay) · Fri, Oct 23 · 23:00 · Defensor Sporting vs Racing de Montevideo
Likeliest: Racing de Montevideo win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Defensor Sporting32%36%−3
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Racing de Montevideo35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 43% | 49% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 64% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 48% | 51% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 0.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Defensor Sporting
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Boston River (A)0-1
- Oct 10 · v Cerro (H)0-0
- Oct 3 · at Albion FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Danubio (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Nacional (A)2-3
Racing de Montevideo
DrawLossLossLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Montevideo Wanderers (H)3-0
- Oct 11 · at Juventud de Las Piedras (A)0-2
- Oct 4 · v Peñarol (H)0-1
- Sep 26 · at Progreso (A)1-2
- Sep 20 · at Liverpool UY (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Defensor Sporting | Racing de Montevideo |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-6-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.