Primera Nacional (Argentina) · Sat, Oct 24 · 20:00 · Defensores de Belgrano vs San Miguel
Likeliest: Defensores de Belgrano win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Defensores de Belgrano38%39%−1
OursMarket
Draw35%33%+2
OursMarket
San Miguel28%28%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 44% | 41% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 72% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 65% | 67% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.7 | 0.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Defensores de Belgrano
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 19 · at San Telmo (A)0-0
- Oct 10 · v Acassuso (H)0-3
- Oct 3 · at Chaco For Ever (A)2-2
- Sep 26 · v Club Ferro Carril Oeste (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Central Norte de Salta (A)1-0
San Miguel
DrawLossLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Ciudad de Bolivar (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Almirante Brown (A)1-1
- Oct 3 · v Mitre (H)0-2
- Sep 26 · at Estudiantes de Buenos Aires (A)1-2
- Sep 19 · v All Boys (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Defensores de Belgrano | San Miguel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 0-3-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-3 | 0-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.