Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sun, Sep 20 · 14:30 · Degerfors IF vs Hammarby
Likeliest: Hammarby win · 75%
A 75% away win. The market says 71%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Degerfors IF8%11%−3
OursMarket
Draw17%18%−1
OursMarket
Hammarby75%71%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 48% | 48% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 25% | 29% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 92% | 89% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 83% | 82% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 10% | 14% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 2.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Degerfors IF
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 14 · at IK Sirius (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-2
- Aug 23 · at IF Brommapojkarna (A)0-2
- Aug 19 · at IFK Östersund (A)5-1
Hammarby
WinWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 13 · v IF Brommapojkarna (H)3-1
- Sep 6 · at Örgryte IS (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · at AIK (A)2-3
- Aug 26 · at FC Stockholm Internazionale (A)3-0
- Aug 23 · v GAIS (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Degerfors IF | Hammarby |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.