Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Mon, Oct 19 · 17:00 · Degerfors IF vs Kalmar
Likeliest: Kalmar win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 37%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Degerfors IF31%34%−2
OursMarket
Draw31%29%+2
OursMarket
Kalmar37%37%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 47% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 63% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 66% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Degerfors IF
LossWinLossLossDraw
- Oct 10 · at Mjällby (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · v Hammarby (H)0-1
- Sep 14 · at IK Sirius (A)0-2
- Sep 5 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-0
- Aug 29 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-2
Kalmar
LossLossLossLossLoss
- Oct 12 · at Malmö FF (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v BK Häcken (H)0-5
- Sep 13 · at IF Elfsborg (A)0-1
- Sep 7 · v Djurgården (H)0-1
- Aug 29 · at Halmstads BK (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Degerfors IF | Kalmar |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 1-2-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 1-2-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.