LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Sun, Oct 18 · 16:30 · Delfín vs Manta FC
Likeliest: Delfín win · 50%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 50% for the home win. The market says 50%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Delfín50%50%0
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Manta FC20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 70% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 41% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Delfín
WinLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 9 · v Mushuc Runa (H)3-2
- Sep 20 · at Técnico Universitario (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
Manta FC
LossLossDrawWinWin
- Oct 10 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
- Sep 21 · v Orense SC (H)2-1
- Sep 12 · v Aucas (H)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Emelec (A)0-1
- Sep 2 · at Macará (A)3-4
| Last 10 games | Delfín | Manta FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.