LigaPro Serie A (Ecuador) · Fri, Oct 9 · 20:30 · Delfín vs Mushuc Runa
Likeliest: Mushuc Runa win · 35%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 35% for the away win. The market says 35%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Delfín31%35%−3
OursMarket
Draw34%30%+3
OursMarket
Mushuc Runa35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 46% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 69% | 65% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 50% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Delfín
LossWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 20 · at Técnico Universitario (A)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Barcelona SC (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Universidad Católica del Ecuador (H)0-1
- Sep 1 · v Técnico Universitario (H)1-0
- Aug 28 · at Mushuc Runa (A)0-1
Mushuc Runa
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Sep 20 · at Deportivo Cuenca (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Guayaquil City (A)1-3
- Sep 8 · v Leones del Norte (H)1-1
- Sep 2 · at LDU (A)0-0
- Aug 28 · v Delfín (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Delfín | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-4 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.