NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:45 · Denver Summit FC vs Angel City FC
Likeliest: Denver Summit FC win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 63% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Denver Summit FC43%44%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Angel City FC30%31%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 58% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 63% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 69% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 56% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Denver Summit FC
DrawDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 4 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · at Kansas City Current (A)1-4
- Sep 20 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)2-1
- Sep 17 · v Bay FC (H)2-2
- Sep 12 · at Angel City FC (A)3-3
Angel City FC
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 4 · at NJ/NY Gotham FC (A)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Washington Spirit (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · at Utah Royals FC (A)3-0
- Sep 17 · v Seattle Reign FC (H)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Denver Summit FC (H)3-3
| Last 10 games | Denver Summit FC | Angel City FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 5-4-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.